It's always been a struggle for economists and statisticians to forecast India's gross domestic product (GDP) correctly, and say where the economy is headed before the official numbers come out. If estimating the GDP is tough, forecasting it in real time is complicated. It involves looking at tens of indicators, such as industrial production, electricity consumption and exports, to arrive at a number.
In mid-March this year, the finance ministry asked state-run banks to review their gold loan portfolio for the two-year period between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2024. This business had grown at a fast clip. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data has it that it grew 15 per cent to Rs 1 trillion in FY24. Now, in recent times, any kind of exuberance in financial services has seen the authorities swoop down - be it pushing the lines on governance or unsecured credit.
The changes in the domestic and global economy following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic are altering the corporate profit league table in India. Reliance Industries (RIL), which topped the India Inc profit chart for more than a decade, lost out to State Bank of India (SBI) in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1). India's biggest lender reported a consolidated net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of Rs 66,860 crore during the trailing 12-month (TTM) ended in June this year, ahead of RIL's TTM adjusted net profit of Rs 64,758 crore in the quarter.
'... and without necessarily calling them Economic Surveys.' 'One should stick to the main focus, which is to give people a good perspective on how the economy is doing.'
Truck movements across the India-Bangladesh border are on the rise, with increasing rentals signalling a trade recovery between the two South Asian nations. Yet, geopolitical tension looms large, with Bangladesh now under an interim government for nearly two months.
The share of women employed in regular salaried jobs in urban India hit a fresh low in the January-March quarter (Q4) of 2023-24 (FY24). In the same period, the share of women engaged in self-employment went up. An analysis of the latest quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data showed the share of women in regular wage work among all employed women stood at 52.3 per cent in Q4FY24, down from 53 per cent in the previous quarter.
The health of Indian banks continued to improve in 2021-22 with their balance sheet growing at double digits after a gap of seven years and their asset quality and capital position bettering, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its annual report on trend and progress of banking in India. At the same time, the banking regulator flagged the issue of slippages from restructured accounts. "Going forward, it is imperative that banks ensure due diligence and robust credit appraisal to limit credit risk," the report said.
With average capacity utilisation now touching 76 per cent, Indian companies are going back to the drawing board to add capacity but the plans to build new factories and plants are still some months away.
Vimla Patil always stressed the importance of proving wrong the perception that women were women's worst enemies. And it iss a lesson I carried forward with me all through my career, learning empathy, understanding and ways to help as I went along. Sathya Saran, who succeeded Mrs Patil as Femina's editor, pays homage to the well-known journalist who passed into the ages on September 29, 2024.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced income tax relief for the middle class, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for job creation schemes over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled the Modi 3.0 government's first budget after the general elections.
rediffGURU Samkit Maniar answers readers' personal income tax queries.
India's economic growth accelerates to 7.4% in Sept quarter
Warning that the new year will be riskier than the previous two in terms of growth, inflation and the perils of monetary policy normalisation on consumption demand in particular, along with other external risks, a Wall Street brokerage has pencilled in an 8.2 per cent GDP growth next fiscal, with more downside risks to the projection. The biggest risk to the projection is a derailed consumption demand that has been the main growth driver in the past many years, said the Bank of America Securities India house economists who still believe that consumption demand will remain the key driver of growth next fiscal as well.
While the government has infused huge capital into PSBs, the same has largely been used to mitigate losses and has failed to contribute meaningfully to credit growth.
Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) K V Subramanian on Tuesday exuded confidence that India would achieve double-digit growth in the current financial year on the back of policy initiatives and continuing reforms. He also said the country is well poised to meet the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP. "At this stage, I can say confidently that we should be able to achieve that fiscal deficit number. "Any shortfalls that might happen on the disinvestment side will also be accompanied by positive surprises that have happened on tax revenue," he told reporters.
The country's largest private lender HDFC Bank on Saturday reported a 6.51 per cent decline in its consolidated net profit to Rs 16,474.85 crore in the April-June quarter compared to the previous January-March quarter. The city-headquartered lender, which merged its mortgage major parent HDFC into itself in July last year, had reported a net profit of Rs 17,622.38 crore in the March quarter. On a standalone basis, the net profit declined to Rs 16,174.75 crore in April-June 2024-25 from Rs 16,511.85 crore in January-March 2023-24.
Fintech firm One97 Communications, which owns the Paytm brand, on Wednesday said its loss in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 has widened to Rs 550 crore following the ban imposed by the RBI on transactions related to its payments bank. The company had posted a loss of Rs 167.5 crore in the same period a year ago, the company said in a regulatory filing. "Our fourth quarter FY24 results were impacted by temporary disruption on account of UPI transition etc. and permanent disruption because of the PPBL embargo.
Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday assumed charge as the Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister for the second consecutive term and is slated to soon present the final Budget for FY '25 that is going to set the tone for the Modi 3.0 government's priorities and direction for Viksit Bharat. Upon her reaching the North Block office, Sitharaman was greeted by Finance Secretary T V Somanathan and other top officials. Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary was also present. Chaudhary assumed charge on Tuesday evening.
Sheikh Hasina, who was elected for a record fourth consecutive term and fifth overall term this year, was always admired by her supporters as "Iron Lady", before the dramatic development that abruptly ended her 15-year-rule in Bangladesh.
'Investors with higher risk appetite and longer horizon (more than one year) can invest in longer-duration funds like corporate bond funds, long-duration funds and gilt funds for maximum gain.'
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
'Investors should ideally consider equity allocations from a medium-to-long term perspective.'
Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian on Wednesday said India is expected to hit a growth rate of 6.5-7 per cent in 2022-23 and accelerate further to 8 per cent in the subsequent years on the back of reforms undertaken by the government. He also said the government is expected to meet the fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal despite pressure on revenue collections.
Many promoters still consider the cash in the company as their money and are averse to sharing this pie with minority investors, points out Akash Prakash.
Gold loan is currently the fastest-growing loan category (among the various types disbursed to individuals). On February 26, 2021, the outstanding loan against gold jewellery stood at Rs 56,596 crore. By February 25, 2022, it had risen to Rs 71,408 crore, a year-on-year growth of 26.2 per cent, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) data. Several factors are driving the demand for gold loans.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.3 per cent saying that the second wave of coronavirus infections hampers economic recovery and increases risk of longer-term scarring. Moody's, which has a 'Baa3' rating on India with a negative outlook, said obstacles to economic growth, high debt and weak financial system contrain sovereign credit profile. The US-based rating agency had in February forecast a 13.7 per cent economic growth for the current fiscal (April 2021-March 2022).
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday made a modest increase of 11 per cent in capital expenditure (capex) to Rs 11.11 lakh crore for the next financial year as private investment picks up. The government had hiked capex by 37.5 per cent to Rs 10 lakh crore for the current fiscal. Against this, the government expects to spend Rs 9.5 lakh crore in the financial year ending March 2024.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday upped India growth forecast to (-) 10.6 per cent for the current fiscal, from its earlier estimate of (-) 11.5 per cent, saying the latest stimulus prioritises manufacturing and job creation, and focuses on longer-term growth. Last week the government had announced a new fiscal package amounting to Rs 2.7 lakh crore. Moody's said the latest measures aim to increase the competitiveness of India's manufacturing sector and create jobs, while supporting infrastructure investment, credit availability and stressed sectors.
The engineering and construction (E&C) sector delivered an excellent performance in the last two financial years (FY2021-22 or FY22 and FY23's nine-months) and there's reason to believe that FY24 will also see outperformance. The sector has emerged from the pandemic with stronger balance sheets and more rational cost structures. It has a big order book and it should see new order flows accelerate in FY24.
The real requirement for the finance minister's explanatory speech is to explain the measures taken in the Budget to influence inflation and growth not just through the announcement of a deficit goal, but more broadly through the impact on money supply, consumer demand, foreign trade and investment, explains Nitin Desai.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said the world looks at India as an important pillar of stability, a trusted friend, an engine of growth in the global economy, a technology hub for finding solutions and a powerhouse of talented youth. He also said that in the rapidly changing world order, India is moving forward as 'vishwa mitra' (friend of the world).
Flush with liquidity, banks are eager to lend. And, therein lies the problem, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Customers who possess gold jewellery but are either being denied a personal loan or are being asked for a high interest rate due to their poor credit profile may consider a gold loan.
Adopting overly aggressive strategies without considering risk could lead to significant losses during the next downturn.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The liquidity in the banking system could ease in the coming week due to an increase in government spending - a development that would be the key for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to decide whether to extend the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) mandate for banks. There are signs of improvement in the liquidity scenario as banks parked Rs 25, 833 crore with the RBI on Thursday. Market participants expect liquidity to gradually improve by the end of the month or during the first week of September, aided by government spending.
'We found certain banks having lakhs of such accounts with apparently no valid reason.'
